Weekly Briefing 22/04/25
Welcome to the weekly briefing from the UK Abraham Accords Group. Here we will keep you updated on news related to the Abraham Accords, diplomatic relations between the signatories, developments related to future Arab-Israel normalisations, and events to look out for this week.
Headlines
Israel had plans to destroy Iran’s nuclear capability, but Trump opted for diplomacy The Times
Before Trump started negotiations with Iran, Israel was prepared to strike and fully destroy Iranian nuclear facilities. Israeli officials hoped that Trump would support the military route but after intelligence showed that this could lead to a serious confrontation, the president chose diplomacy instead. Various Israeli politicians view this as a stepback, believing that only harsh military action can solve the Iranian nuclear issue. However, there are doubts as to how effective this would be, and what Iran’s retaliation could look like.
Saudi Defense Minister visits Iran amidst nuclear deal talks Jerusalem Post
The Saudi Defense Minister visits Tehran, aiding discussions on the nuclear deal. Iran and Saudi share a long difficult history, representing wider divisions between Shia and Sunni Islam. However since the China brokered deal in 2023, relations have been warming between the two states.
Lebanon to disarm Hezbollah, according to President Jerusalem Post
The Lebanese President Joseph Aoun claims that Hezbollah doesn’t seek war with Israel, and shares his hopes for disarmament by the end of the year. Arms would be centralised under state authority, with details being negotiated in ongoing talks between Hezbollah and the government. However, Israel’s continued occupation of five southern points gives Hezbollah impetus to cling onto their arms, and Aoun’s goal is to secure the withdrawal of these forces.
Long-term truce is floated by mediators in Cairo Times of Israel
Israeli mediators are in Cairo meeting with senior officials discussing proposals of a 5 to 7 year ceasefire, meaning a formal end to the war. This would entail a comprehensive disengagement from Gaza and all Israeli hostages released in exchange for Palestinian prisoners. Hamas is offering to give up ruling Gaza and would be replaced by Palestinian technocrats, in line with the Egyptian Gaza reconstruction plan. Israel is yet to comment on this proposal.
Must Read
Azerbaijan: Augmenting the Abraham Accords Israel National News
This article explores the ever-deepening strategic relationship that Israel and Azerbaijan share. This is marked by significant developments such as SOCAR's (Azerbaijan's state oil company) involvement in Israel's energy sector and high-level diplomatic engagements, including a visit by a senior Trump envoy. These ties are underpinned by Azerbaijan's longstanding support for Israel, notably during the 2023 Israel-Hamas conflict, and its harmony with the Azeri Jewish community, rare for a Middle Eastern country. Given these factors, there is growing advocacy for Azerbaijan's inclusion in the Abraham Accords.
Threats won’t stop Iran building the bomb. Diplomacy still could The Times
Freedman reflects on the failure of Trump’s previous strategy with Iran, who resumed nuclear activies and continued enriching uraniam to its current level - suitable for six bombs. It’s looking likely that the US and Iran will agree on strict verification measures to prove that Iran aren’t building weapons. However this will not suffice for Netanyahu, who demands full elimination of Iranian nuclear capabilities. Military action has been consistently threatened against Iran, but Freedman suggests that this could only further convince Iran to bolster their nuclear facilities so they could survive any attack.
Key Meetings
Saudi Defense Minister Prince Khalid bin Salman in Tehran for the weekend of Iran-US talks regarding the Iranian nuclear programme.
Iranian foreign minister Abbas Araghchi met with Putin and the Russian Foreign Minister in Moscow as Iran-US talks take place.
New Syrian and Lebanese leaders visit Qatar for the first time since their incumbency began.
Israeli delegation arrives in Cairo to discuss long-term truce plans, mediated by Egpyt and Qatar.
In Parliament this week
House of Commons
Tuesday 22nd April, 1:00-1:30pm
Foreign Affairs Committee - Oral evidence on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict
House of Lords
Wednesday 23rd April, 2:00pm
International Agreements Committee - Oral evidence on a review of treaty scrutiny